I-P Variance (Individual-Player)
HighK% ≥ 25%
LowBelow 25%
A High K% pitcher has strikeout upside that can push their score well past projection — every missed bat is a point. A Low K% arm is more projection-bound; their floor and ceiling are tighter.
Matchup Variance (Opponent Context)
GoodOpp total ≤ 3.5
Neutral3.6–4.0
Poor4.1+
If the opponent's implied run total is low, Vegas is pricing in a dominant outing — that's a Good matchup. Neutral is a coin-flip spot. Poor means the lineup you're facing is live, and the scoring environment is real.